It's that time of year.
The time when we all start looking at the Officer Down Memorial Page and the FBI's LEOKA pages, thinking about our brothers and sisters that have been assaulted or injured, and those that have made the ultimate sacrifice.
Some years are better than others, but every year's numbers are sobering and saddening. This year will be no different.
I started talking to my fellow coppers about risk management back in the late 80s. Back then we used to talk a lot about getting sued, and we also talked about getting hurt, although - depending what part of the building you worked in - we didn't always focus on safety more than liability. We certainly didn't hit it as hard as we should have. A lot of that has changed during the intervening years. We are still talking about liability - probably a great deal more than we should - but we are all focusing a lot more on officer safety; as it should be.
As I write this, it's Sunday, December 21st, but you won't read it until at least Christmas Day. Still, as of today, ODMP lists 129 officers that have died in the line of duty, which is a significant drop from the number posted on the same date in every one of the last 20 years. And while these last few days of each year have always seen the deaths of a few more of our fellow coppers, even if we match the numbers for the worst year of the last 20 - 1999, when there were eight - we will still be at a 20 year low.
That is incredibly good news, during this year when our country and our profession have traveled down a pretty rough road. Any time the numbers drop, we should all be thankful.
Of course, as the next couple of weeks go by, there will be lots of write-ups regarding the KIA data. There will also (eventually) be some data regarding the numbers of officers assaulted, and injured, during 2008. Although those numbers are far less reliable than that on the number of officers killed, much can still be learned from them. Information regarding assaults and injuries is the most valuable dataset of all, because - statistically speaking - the numbers are large enough that we can work with them in order to trend potential threats to officers.
20 Year Analysis
In looking at the ODMP data over the last 20 years, there are some startling inferences to be drawn. There are also some things that are not surprising at all.
Comparing the first decade of those 20 years (from 1988 to 1997) to the most recent decade (1998 through 2007), the average number of officers accidentally killed each year dropped slightly when including all types of incidents except vehicle and motorcycle accidents. When those are added, the numbers spike, from an annual average of 75 for the first ten year period to an average of 84 per year for the second ten years. When considered alone, vehicle and motorcycle crashes jumped from an annual average of 33 during 1988 - 1997, to an average of 45 for 1998 - 2007.
In looking at incidents where officers were killed by another's hand, i.e. homicides, non-firearms deaths were fairly consistent when averaged over four consecutive five year periods: from 1988 through 1992, the average was 28 per year; from 1993 through 1997, the annual average was 24; and from 2003 through 2007, and average was 27 per year. The five year period from 1998 through 2002 was higher, at 36 per year. This last figure was skewed higher by the 9/11 deaths of 72 officers.
This is probably a good place to note that, although statistically the addition of fallen officers from 9/11 is likely to skew any analysis, I personally feel that it's time to start including them in this sort of review. I know and understand all the scientific reasons for not doing so, but I believe they have a right to be counted, especially due to the ongoing nature of our war on terror. Besides, this is my analysis. If another author wants to leave them out, let them write their own article.
One of the statistical surprises from the ODMP data is the significant drop in officers killed with firearms. Average annual firearms deaths (not including accidental deaths) for the 20 year period were 63, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The decade from 1988 through 1997 averaged over 70 officers killed with firearms each year, while the following ten years (1998 to 2007) averaged 55 annually. While this is still way too many, officers are clearly doing something right, especially given the more frenetic pace and violent tendencies of today’s work environment.
The number of male officers dying each year has remained fairly steady, at an average of 163 annually over the 20 years. There is a slight drop from the first decade's annual average of 165 to the following decade's annual average of 161. Deaths of female officers averaged just under eight per year over the 20 years, but increased significantly when comparing the 6.5 annual average from the 1988 through 1997 period, to the higher average of 9 female officers killed annually during the second decade.
Overall 20 year averages for officers killed are: Non-felonious fatalities (accidents) - 80 per year; felonious fatalities - 91 per year; and the total average for all officers dying on the job - 171 per year.
Age and Service Demographics
The average age of officers killed over the 20 year period was 37 years, 9 months. That average was remarkably consistently over the 20 years, with the average ages of officers killed each year varying no higher than 39, and no lower than 37, with the exception of the first year, 1988, when the average age was 36.
Time on the job was similarly consistent, with the 20 year average at 126 months, or 10 and a half years. Averages were relatively close from year to year, ranging from a high of 152 months (12 years, 8 months) in 2004, to a low of 104 months (8 years, 8 months) in 1996.
There were minimal changes from the 1988 - 1997 period to the 1998 - 2007 period: Average age increased by less than a year, and time on the job by a similar amount (10 months).
Specific Causes of Deaths
When ODMP lists specific causes of death, they take a more flexible approach than some other research sites. In effect, they list the causes differently for each year, based on the deaths that occurred that year. This results in a different number of categories each year. Collectively, this 20 year period we have been discussing includes 33 different causes of death.
Of the 3,422 officers that died in the line of duty during the 20 year period from 1988 through 2007, the top 10 overall causes of death were (in order): Hostile gunfire (1,256), automobile accidents (676), vehicular assault (251), heart attack (246), being struck by a vehicle (173), aircraft accident (118), vehicle pursuit (115), motorcycle accident (110), terrorist attack (83), and accidental gunfire (68). These made up 3,096 deaths, or just over 90 per cent.
The top five causes of death at the hands of another were: Hostile gunfire (1,256), Vehicular assault (251), vehicle pursuit (115), terrorist attack (83), and assault (59). These made up 1,764 deaths, or just over 51 per cent.
Finally, the top five causes of death, not at the hands of another, were: Automobile accident (676), heart attack (246), struck by vehicle (173), aircraft accident (118), and motorcycle accident (110). These total up to 1,323 deaths, or just under 39 per cent of all officers killed.
Beyond these totals, there's no time to review every category here, but there are a few points that bear mentioning:
- Deaths from 9/11 related medical problems have been occurring more frequently since 2004. This could be a dangerous trend for those that worked at Ground Zero.
- While deaths related to aircraft accidents have been declining since the mid 1990s, during our 20 year research period, the annual average was approximately six each year. If the decline is due to safer practices in aviation units, all the better. It's possible, however, that - with current budget issues - there are just fewer police aviation units flying.
- Automobile accidents continue to be one of the most dangerous events for officers, and remember - the 676 deaths listed here do not include deaths from pursuits or being struck by a vehicle. These are routine driving and emergency response accidents.
- An average of two officers drown each year, and two die from falls. Beware of hidden dangers during your duty tour.
- Hostile gunfire is by far the greatest cause of deaths of officers, averaging 63 fatalities annually. Equally troubling are the 3-4 officers (on average) that die each year due to accidental gunfire. Think safety!
- Heart attacks claim an average of 12 officers each year, while nine are struck by vehicles, and six die in motorcycle accidents.
- The admonitions of agencies regarding not firing at moving vehicles doesn't appear to make much sense when you look at the average of 13 officers killed each year by vehicular assault.
What of 2008?
We started out talking about this year, and how we're on track to have far fewer deaths than last year. In fact, with just a couple exceptions, the statistics for almost every category that we've discussed are significantly lower than previous years, and that is a very good thing.
Through December 21, 129 officers have died in the line of duty. This includes a 33 per cent drop in accidental deaths (not including motor vehicle and motorcycle accidents). Unfortunately, those two classifications together show a 17 per cent increase over the 20 year average. Overall, then, there have been 73 accidental officer deaths, an 8.6 per cent drop from the average.
There have been a total of 56 felonious deaths, which is down almost 39 per cent from the 20 year average of 91 deaths. Deaths of officers at the hands of another, without firearms (21), are down 26 per cent, and felonious officer deaths through a firearms attack (35) are also down 44 per cent from the 20 year averages.
Deaths of male officers are down almost 30 per cent, but female officer deaths are up over 80 percent (14 during 2008, almost twice the 20 year average of 8 officers). It's possible that this large increase is due to the greater number of female officers coming on the job during the intervening years. Still, officer safety trainers and department administrators need to look at what they can do to address this.
Overall, the 129 deaths (through 12/21/2008) represent a 25 per cent drop over the 20 year average of 171 officer deaths. Again, keep in mind that this decrease has occurred in a very different policing climate, and - in many cases - in departments that are working significantly under strength. Everyone, from the street coppers to the second floor bosses deserves credit for achieving this. Still, while we should all be grateful that the numbers are down, and officers are safer, we cannot forget that there's a lot of work left to do.
There is still way too much space on that wall, waiting to be filled with the names of the fallen.
Stay safe, and wear your vest!
