It's been a week so let's go through this again and take a look at how the numbers have grown.
Please remember, as I've said before, I am NOT preaching against caution or being careful. I'm preaching against panic and fear. Even the best of us can fall to stress and the current health crisis is certainly creating plenty of that, supported by the never-ending stream of bad news and government actions coming out of the mainstream media (television statements). We see reports of politicians still playing games with our livelihoods while our brothers and sisters... and yes, even those people in the yellow coats and pretty helmets (firefighters) - we're all out here still doing the job. We KNOW we are appreciated by a great many people. Support each other and stay strong. Stay healthy. Keep emotionally and mentally fit. Talk to one another... apparently from at least six feet away.
Monday, March 23rd, afternoon EST: The U.S. is reporting 41,901 infections with 507 deaths and 187 recovers. I would remind you as you read those numbers to keep a couple things in mind (and no, I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of the situation): The number reflect a mortality rate of 1.2%. That's high compared to the seasonal flu but doesn't include extra information about the demographics of the deceased. No, I'm not saying that anyone is more or less valuable, but differing age and health segments of our population are at greater risk. The mortality rate for people over 65, as an example, may be significantly higher than that of those in their 20s. For healthy people, with no underlying conditions and under 40 years of age, the mortality rate may be equal to or even less than that of seasonal flu. Not enough data is available to make that determination.
The 187 recovered are, as I understand it, people who have 1) tested positive for the virus and then 2) tested negative TWICE for it. At present, as far as I can find, there is no way to test someone to see if they've had it and since only people who are symptomatic and referred by doctors are being tested for it, there may be an untold number of people who have been infected and shown no symptoms at all. There may be people who have contracted the virus and had symptoms so mild they didn't report it or get tested and then recovered. We have no way of knowing how large or small those numbers of "victims" are. Unfortunately, the only numbers we can measure and report are the negative ones: X number of confirmed tested positive cases; X number of dead; X number of twice tested negative recovered patients.
Please keep all of that in mind. The links below are still all valid and providing updated information daily. Stay safe and stay sane. Do your best to avoid potential exposure through best isolation practices and be mindful of what you might take home to your family.
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March 16, 2020:
Four days ago I published the original version of this article. Within a few hours I got the first hate mail and within the following day I had several emails counseling me about “practicing medicine without a license.” As if there aren’t enough obvious examples of silliness in the world, I got to enjoy a few more.
Brother and sister officers: today’s update includes links for several resources. I encourage you to stay informed, practice safe isolation procedures as best you can and be alert for those who would leverage this health emergency to their own benefit or your detriment. That said, I’d also encourage you not to panic and not to support panic or panicked responses. If you are a family member of a law enforcement professional, before you email me to complain about how my writing increases the danger to your loved because I’m not preaching panic and gloom and doom, please have a reasonable discussion with your LE family member to see how they feel about it. For anyone who is going to email to ask, yes you absolutely may print, copy and post this around your station or for your officers. If you’re going to republish this to a website, all I require is that you link in this original as the source.
Monday morning, March 16, 2020 just after 9 o’clock on the eastern seaboard: Here in Maryland we now have 31 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection. All of them seem centered around the larger cities: Washington DC and Baltimore. The more rural and less densely populated counties / areas haven’t had any reported cases yet. That’s not to say that there aren’t any; just no one has gone into a hospital with the appropriate symptoms, been tested and confirmed. As I prepare this update, I can’t find anything about any fatalities in Maryland yet. (https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/?fbclid=IwAR0ysE_Y647xlRwldVaRZq6wBBrxOX3oB7ERGLvHzLrcKuDfNUp3q-iACwg)
In the United States we see 3,806 reported cases with 69 fatalities and 73 recoveries to date. With 3,664 infected patients being monitored, 3,654 are reportedly showing mild symptoms and in reasonably good condition with 10 cases reported as serious or critical. Statistically, that puts the “serious and critical” count at 0.00273% of the cases currently under observation. The number of cases in the U.S. has spiked in the past two weeks but while the curve seemed to be steeply inclining between 3/10 and 3/14, it looks to be slowing as of yesterday. More time will tell. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
This webpage from John Hopkins University shows global numbers and has graphs that reflect spread, recovery, etc.
(https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Since so much of what I’m seeing and reading seems to be comparing COVID-19 to previous diseases and pandemics, I sought out an information source that would give some sort of visual representation of pandemics across documented history. I found this site on VisualCapitalist.com. The numbers and a visual representation showing relative size based on numbers of deaths caused make it easy to see how COVID-19 compares to previous pandemics so far. A note is included that these are not final numbers and the accuracy has to be considered speculative because COVID-19 is so new and data is still coming in.
Those sites provide you realistic information on infection rates, death rates, numbers and so on. Something that isn’t being as heavily reported is the growing number of recovery cases and, in fact, one article with input directly from someone who is 100% recovered from COVID-19. Here is a list of articles and their links so you can get some perspective – from someone other than me – on why you shouldn’t panic and how effective the actions being taken are.
‘Don’t Panic’ Says US Woman Who Recovered From Coronavirus
Amid Growing Coronavirus Cases, Another Number Increasing: Recoveries
Coronavirus Hysteria: The Need for Perspective
Coronavirus: Ten Reasons Why You Ought Not to Panic
We will continue to provide updates as they seem valid to put forth. We will not constantly flush our system with “news” about the panic behavior sweeping parts of our country. The more densely populated areas are seeing it the worst and we encourage our brother and sister law enforcement professionals: Be safe. Go home at the end of your shift. Take reasonable precautions to avoid becoming infected.
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March 12, 2020:
Author's Note: As I have now received several emails accusing me of 1) trying to practice medicine without a license, 2) passing false information and 3) failing to provide my sources, I'm adding in this note. The sources for information included below include:
- CDC's website
- WHO's website
- AMA's website
- webMD
- Wikipedia (for info on the common cold)
- ODMP
- NLEOMF
- InformationIsBeautiful website
I'm not going to detail out all of the research, every link, etc. You can go visit those sites yourself and do your own research. I wrote the following to remind my brother and sister law enforcement professionals that panic does no one any good. Statistically, we stand a better chance of dying from a traffic accident or gunshot.
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Anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock for the past couple of weeks has heard about the Novel Coronavirus, otherwise known as COVID-19. Depending on which news outlet you follow, or what you subscribe to in your social media feeds, you may be led to believe that the end of the world is nigh and if you don’t bathe your entire body in hand-sanitizer at least four times per hour, you’re doomed! Take a breath. Calm down. Relax even. Let’s take a dispassionate look at some reported numbers and see what level of concern we need to have.
First off, the majority of those people infected have symptoms so mild that they don’t require anything more than staying home, staying hydrated and resting. That number of infected folks accounts for 80.9% of reported cases. This number may actually be low because of the number of people who actually have COVID-19 but THINK they have a cold or flu and are staying home to take care of themselves and not risk passing along their illness. Of the documented and tested-positive cases, 13.8% have symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization. An additional 4.7% are hospitalized and considered in critical condition or in need of specialized care.
Secondly, the mainstream media is pretty regularly quoting a 3.4% mortality rate. At least one doctor at the World Health Organization (WHO) has said that number is probably high – as much as TEN TIMES too high. Why? Because that’s the mortality rate for people who have been tested and tested positive. Most of them are already symptomatic and may have pre-existing conditions. With his observation in mind, and a potential realistic mortality rate of 0.34%, that would put the COVID-19 mortality rate below that of… oh, the regular seasonal flu.
The elderly – for our uses here, those over 60 years of age – are at greatest risk. The average documented mortality rate for those under 60 years of age is less than 1.3%. For those under 40 years of age it’s less than 0.2%. For those over 80 years of age the mortality rate is 14.8% (as reported up through March 9th, 2020). That means that the average 20-40 year old who is infected faces a 0.2% chance of death from this virus and even that number includes those who have a pre-existing health condition that contributes to the mortality rate. For those between 41-59 years of age, the mortality rate jumps up to 1.3% but that still includes those with pre-existing health challenges. With about 99% of all law enforcement officers between the ages of 21-55, the general risk of our community for death due to this virus is FAR lower than our risk from vehicle accidents, gunshots, etc.
COVID-19 puts those with pre-existing health conditions at higher risk. Those with the following conditions and who get infected with COVID-19 have the following reported mortality rates:
· Cardiovascular disease: 10.5%
· Diabetes: 7.3%
· Chronic Respiratory disease: 6.3%
· Abnormally high blood pressure: 6%
· Cancer: 5.6%
· No previous conditions: 0.9%
COVID-19 is LESS contagious than bird flu, ebola, MERS, smallpox, polio, tuberculosis, Spanish flu, SARS and other diseases. It is roughly ONE PERCENT more contagious than rotavirus, seasonal flu, swine flu, norovirus, chickenpox and the common cold. That 1% makes a big difference, however, when you take into consideration the fact that infected people are contagious for 7-10 days before they show symptoms.
Now, let’s put the deaths attributed to this virus into perspective. Admittedly, ANY loss of life that is preventable is sad, but what should be causing mass panic? (if anything?) Here is a list of diseases and the Deaths Per Day attributed to them. Yes, this list has 17 items on it. It wasn’t made that long intentionally. That’s just how long it had to be to get COVID-19 on it. Remember, the number given is Deaths Per Day due to the disease cited.
· Tuberculosis: 3,014
· Hepatitis B: 2,430
· Pneumonia: 2,216
· HIV-AIDS: 2,110
· Malaria: 2,002
· Shigellosis: 1,644
· Rotavirus: 1,233
· Seasonal flu: 1,027
· Norovirus: 548
· Whooping Cough: 440
· Typhoid: 396
· Cholera: 392
· Meningitis: 329
· Measles: 247
· Rabies: 162
· Yellow Fever: 82
· COVID-19: 56
I am amazed that in today’s day and age, with all of our medical technology, things like Malaria, Whooping Cough, Cholera and Rabies are still on that list. The Seasonal Flu is there with over 1,000 deaths PER DAY attributed to it. That means you are 20 times more likely to die from the flu than you are from COVID-19. Are you starting to see the unreasonable mass panic response silliness yet?
Do you know why people are panicking like they are? It might have something to do with how the media is reporting on COVID-19. One research outlet says that, in the past few weeks, COVID-19 has been mentioned in the mainstream media over 1.1 BILLION times. Compare that to HIV/AIDS having been mentioned 40 million times. So, doing the math, COVID-19 is mentioned 27.5 times more than HIV, but HIV/AIDS is 37.7 times more likely to kill you.
People, take proper precautions but don’t freak out; panic never adds to the resolution of anything. As you always should be, be aware of who you are dealing with and their health conditions. Use your personal protective equipment but remember that once it’s potentially contaminated, it’s also a potential petri dish. Those gloves you wear to protect yourself against what someone else might be carrying will carry infection from one person to the next if you don’t change them out. If you have only one pair of gloves for your duty day, you’re woefully under equipped. Those gloves have to be changed from suspect to suspect. Pull them off like you were taught to in TASER class – one over the other and wrapped up inside out on themselves. THEN use that small squirt of hand sanitizer before you touch yourself in other places.
Beyond these simple precautions, you should be doing what you should always be doing to maintain your health long term in our career: eat clean(ish), exercise regularly, limit your vices (alcohol, smoking), embrace a decent sleep cycle and stay clean. Manage your stress so your blood pressure doesn’t go up and you don’t hurt your heart. If you can mitigate your other risk factors, your chances of a fatal infection from COVID-19 are fairly small compared to all the other stuff we deal with that might kill us.
