All of my adult life I’ve marveled at the fact that despite our law enforcement handgun training, tactical training, and upgrades in equipment and weaponry, our chances of being fatally wounded by some untrained thug with a cheap .22 remain high. You’ve probably seen and heard stories about the bad guy who suddenly pulls out a piece, points and shoots, and winds up hitting a cop right between the eyes. Pure luck, right? Maybe not.
Thanks to Dr. Bill Lewinski at the Force Science Institute, we now have a study explaining why inexperienced shooters are either on par with highly trained cops, or in some cases, even better. The article is eye opening, to say the least. It was published recently in the International Journal of Police Science & Management, and is titled: “The real risk during deadly police shootouts: Accuracy of the naive shooter.” The article can be read in its entirety here.
Being a police trainer for more than 30 years, I know the limitations we have when it comes to delivering realistic training. For most firearms instructors, our job is primarily to ensure the troops are trained sufficiently to shoot a qualifying score. Little time remains for creating real-life situations officers may encounter on the street. Essentially, the one thing that severely limits our ability to expose our colleagues to what they may encounter is the issue of safety—it limits movement and types of targets. Sadly, someone who fires a perfect qualifying score may leave the range with a false sense of security. Shooting at targets that don’t shoot back leads to techniques that may get you killed when you try them on the street.
Back to the FSI study—the research found that when it comes to gunfights, head shots in particular, a novice shooter will likely hit the head more often than the trained officer. Furthermore, when we just look at putting rounds on the target, the trained officer is only “. . . marginally better than the lesser-trained shooters . . .”
The research consisted of 247 volunteers from both the north and the south who were studying in a law enforcement program or attending a police academy. Males made up 80% of the group that was divided up in this manner:
- Trained handgun shooters, aka, Experts (had formal training in military of LE)
- Intermediate shooters (no academy training but some experience with military rifles or recreational shooting)
- Novice shooters (fresh recruits with no or minimal experience)
The study was conducted in ranges with similar conditions and similar targets. Each shooter was armed with a semi-automatic pistol and instructed to fire three rounds “as rapidly and as accurately as possible” when a shot timer sounded. No instruction was given regarding where to aim, and the target was set at nine different distances ranging from 3 – 75 feet.
Summarizing the results: the Intermediate shooters and the Experts showed barely any difference in accuracy. The Experts bested the Intermediates by barely one percentage point. However, when the targets were set at a distance of 3 – 15 feet (where many shootings occur), the Experts were better by only four percentage points. At 18 – 45 feet, the Intermediates shot more accurately than the Experts.
The biggest surprise? At 3 – 15 feet, Novice shooters (those with no experience), achieved a hit accuracy level of 75%, while the other two groups were only about 10% more accurate.
However, here’s the worst news. When it comes to head shots at the three foot distance, the Novice shooters’ rounds hit home almost 60% of the time, compared to just 21% for the Experts. Lewinski attributes this disparity to the Novices having no training. They in effect, are more likely to aim where they’re looking—at the officer’s face (point and shoot). Conversely, trained officers are looking at a number of things as they try to analyze the situation and assess the threat level. Most often, cops are looking at hands and reading body language. Moreover, most of our training is focused toward shooting at center mass, not headshots. Unfortunately, more and more thugs are protecting themselves with body armor, and sometimes our center mass shots are ineffective. Additionally, bad guys are well aware that cops wear vests.
The research suggests a number of recommendations regarding improving our survival rate. Some include training in early threat detection, strategy, and decision making to quicken judgment and reaction time. Another recommendation is one that I’ve suggested over the years, and that is the individual officer should seek additional training, even if it means doing it on their own if their department fails to provide what they need.
Headshot training should be an integral component of firearms training, as should mental imaging, another survival technique I’ve advocated over the years. Thinking about the “what ifs” give us a mental game plan to follow when things go sideways. Rehearsing tactics and response keeps one ahead of the power curve.
Finally, since we have so much footage from dash and body cams, LE needs to use this tool for training and debriefing. Looking at film from critical incidents is no different than coaches and teams reviewing a football game and analyzing what may have been done poorly and what worked well.
Here’s why this is an important issue. Officers KIA between 2000 – 2009 numbered 536. However, 290 of those were shot in the head and neck (FBI, 2014). Let’s work to reduce that number to zero. Be proactive and train for headshots, the quickest way to stop a deadly threat.
Stay Safe, Brothers and Sisters!
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Editor's Note Add-On: While I completely agree with Mr. Wills' assessment and recommendation to train for headshots, I can't help but recognize the obvious backlash that will occur. If we, as law enforcement professionals, start shooting people in the head - even after we've hit them with good body shots that have shown no effect - the public outcry is going to be horrendous. Worse yet, the state prosecutors that are currently on our side will bow to the public opinion and start prosecuting what are obviously "good shoots" just to save their votes and get reelected. This is a no-win scenario in my mind but do what you have to to survive your shift and go home to your loved ones.
