For about a week now I’ve been complaining that the media is reporting nothing but the bad news; the worst news; the bleakest most sensationalized “news” that drove panic and fear. Finally this morning as I updated our website’s dedicated page to COVID-19 information, I saw the good news being reported. I want to make sure I share it and comment on why things might be even better than the good news makes it appear.
First, the good news is that websites are finally showing recoveries outrunning deaths due to COVID-19. According to this website, the number of recoveries in the United States is 1,868 while the death toll is 1,304. Yesterday the reported numbers had recoveries at below 500. With an almost 400% increase in reported recoveries and the mortality rate running about 1.5% (instead of the originally reported 3.4%), the hope on the horizon seems a lot closer.
Second, according to this website published and maintained by John Hopkins University, one of the premier medical training facilities in our nation, the worldwide number of recovered is roughly 125K compared to the to the total deaths of 24,354. Don’t get me wrong; 24K+ dead is a lot of people. But focus on the fact that the reported recovered is FIVE TIMES the reported dead. The number of recovered is now growing a lot faster than the number who die. That’s a trend that brings more hope. (Compare that 24K+ dead due to COVID-19 to the reported 99K-200K estimated dead due to the seasonal flu in 2019 according to this website.)
And now, let’s look at why the number of recovered might even be bigger than what is being reported. In the United States, people who test positive for COVID-19 are immediately reported. Many… in fact, most of them are sent home to “self care” and recover. Their symptoms are so mild that they don’t require hospitalization or being put on a ventilator, etc. Yes, there are those cases but they are the minority and almost 100% connected to underlying pre-existing health conditions the person had before getting infected. So, the number of infected continues to grow as more people are tested. What’s not being reported is the number of people who test negative. That might be an interesting number to know.
Of all the people who test positive, the only people being reported as “recovered” are the people who return and test negative TWICE. How many people do you think, that have symptoms so mild they are sent home to recover after testing positive, return to the hospital or medical facility to be tested after they feel better? I can only imagine that a lot of them are happy to be healthy again and just stay home if they have that option. Of those who do go get tested and test negative the first time, how many return to get tested negative again a second time versus those who take the negative test result, celebrate being healthy and stay home?
Finally, how many people are experiencing either no symptoms or symptoms so mild that they don’t even connect an infection to COVID-19 in their thoughts so they never get tested or even go see a doctor at all? That number could be a few… or it could be thousands. We simply have no way of knowing. But no matter how many it is, it’s a number that matters. By only reporting the negative numbers – the infected, dead, and (now) recovered – the media does nothing to offer hope or see an end in sight to the current crisis.
The good news this morning and is that we can see and share hope. We can see the recovery rate rising and the death rate seeming to slow down. We can see infections still climbing but know, by observable reported data, that growing numbers of infected doesn’t automatically translate to geometrically increasing numbers of deaths. In fact, we’re see the recovery rate growing far faster now and that’s what we need to focus on.
Stay safe. Practice good personal protection and hygienic measures.
Lt. Frank Borelli (ret), Editorial Director | Editorial Director
Lt. Frank Borelli is the Editorial Director for the Officer Media Group. Frank brings 20+ years of writing and editing experience in addition to 40 years of law enforcement operations, administration and training experience to the team.
Frank has had numerous books published which are available on Amazon.com, BarnesAndNoble.com, and other major retail outlets.
If you have any comments or questions, you can contact him via email at [email protected].
